30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

Mike's E-Bikes

Well-Known Member
No one goes into those cities. No one leaves those cities. This is due to the 'Wuhan' initiated corona virus.

Beijing is one of those 30 major cities. More than twice the size of any of our largest US cities.

The virus has a long incubation period. Latency can be 9 to 14 days. Meaning it can be awhile before symptoms even show up, so if infected you dont know it, and yet you can be spreading it. The R naught, or transmissivity is high at 2.8 (estimated) and possibly higher.

Since this is an ebike forum - my questions - are the cities where ebikes are being made, being locked down, and if so for how long could that be, and will ebike production and deliveries be affected much ? Obviously there are entire supply chains impacted. More than 90% of all ebikes come out of China.

Apparently every province in China has detected the coronavirus, and it has spread to at least 11 nations outside of China.

If you lock down 30 major cities (meaning everyone stays in doors) how do they get food and medicine to all these people ? You don't lock down 30 major Chinese cities without serious consequences so to make that decision, they must have a lot higher spread rate and death rate than being reported thus far. N95 masks are pretty much out of stock around here now.
 

harryS

Well-Known Member
I'm sure that food/fuel will get thru, as well as medical supplies when they have them. Their success at containing this does affect the wider world. We got steel, car parts, electrical components, lots of stuff that will shut down US plants. Stock market down big time today. Money isn't that important if you're worried about your health,

My nephew's wife is stuck in China right now. Her agenda was cancelled, and she's trying to catch an earlier flight home.
 

rich c

Well-Known Member
Interesting watching the media cover this viral outbreak. With a little research I found that 80,000 Americans died from "flu" in 2017. I don't remember a shortage of masks that year, or any year. I think the low number of American deaths from flu in a year is around 40,000.
 

Mike's E-Bikes

Well-Known Member
This gentleman puts a reasonable perspective on what's likely going on in China. Has his PHD in pathology from Duke University Medical hospital, understands the transmissive nature of viruses like this, and the implications of its spreading during the latency period when there are no symptoms of the infected. 5 million people left Wuhan before they were locked down.

Very sobering...


This is his update number 3 from yesterday. It's more factual I believe than much of the hysteria laden internet stuff, but ahead of what you will see from mainstream news. Who knows if he is correct, but he seems to be cautious and prudent if you watch all his updates. It's a serious situation though and one to be watched closely.
 
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Alex M

Well-Known Member
I would rather live without a bike (or without any Chinese imports, for that matter) than not live at all. Thus, I fully support current lock down, though I doubt it will be complete. Trucks with food and medications and some service personnel will be going in and out.

The situation is particularly threatening in Canada where Chinese population is well over 50% in some cities, those are mostly 1st generation immigrants, they travel back and forth often.
 

Mike's E-Bikes

Well-Known Member
Did it all started from seafood being tainted or pork ??
Originally they suspected a food market source, but confirmed that it jumped from two species to humans. (Mutated) the rodents mentioned didn't sound like typical fare to me, but perhaps in this part of China they are.
 

Mike's E-Bikes

Well-Known Member
Interesting watching the media cover this viral outbreak. With a little research I found that 80,000 Americans died from "flu" in 2017. I don't remember a shortage of masks that year, or any year. I think the low number of American deaths from flu in a year is around 40,000.
Flu is very deadly yes. That complicates discerning this virus from flu. The 'crown' virus has much more undesirable characteristics, and can turn into much more of a pandemic than traditional flu. N95 masks do work, but also my understanding is that infected people's 'aerosols' could transmit via the eyes. Let's hope it's quickly contained coming here. A lot of flights were let in here, and taking temps was no screen. This started back in December. It's transmissible before symptoms show. (Asymptomatic)
 

Handlebars

Active Member
If you want to see a complete farce check out the press release panel videos of the Toronto case. No temperature checks, guy walks right through although symptomatic, and wife also sick.
Days later the authorities are saying they are working with "partners" on getting the passenger list and will only contact people seated within 2 meters of the sick seats and they wouldn't give out the flight number until next day after being badgered. As if nobody even went to the washroom to be sick or take care of business. Then they say they are working to see where else the plane went after Toronto. They repeatedly refused to answer questions regarding how it will work with the hospitals already filled over 100% capacity before this started and with beds crowding the hallways. The government has swelled the population markedly for some years now so that's a normal state at hospitals.
Masks are sold out everywhere as they are being bought by the case and many sent to China for relatives. Mask companies are withholding further supply.
Ambulance workers union claimed they weren't aware of what the were dealing with when sent for pickup. Intake staff and nurses saying they were not told. Official stories changed later, the actual workers still "liking" dissenting posts. Also later official reports using wording changes to say they did wear "protection" and claiming "misinformation out there".
One mic for all the panel.
The officials seem to have some difficulty or other with their hand movements as the stressful questions arise. Bafflegab central. Partners partners protocols cooperation partners precautions protocols partners. Was the man checked? Waved right through. Be given a pamphlet. Temperature checks on everyone? Don't be fanciful. You're lucky to get one mic for the whole room and not going to get straight answers.
Notice the doctor on the left saying the man was immediately recognized as needing investigation for the disease on entering the hospital @24:00 ... the ambulance workers union had said that their workers were actually not forewarned. Then there was a version where the union had been informed but not the workers. Some workers were giving likes for the dissenting view over the official. Some of the volunteers at the hospital say they have not yet received any communication from the hospital regarding their duties or their personal health protection at the hospital wrt to this incident there.
 
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Alex M

Well-Known Member
I listened, though not very carefully as was in a hurry, to CBC radio on that 1 (now 2) Toronto cases. They "suspect" this is corona virus but have never run the test for this specific virus neither for patient #1 nor his wife, if I understood correctly.
 

Mike's E-Bikes

Well-Known Member
Update #4 from Chris Martensen.

Interesting perspective on how this is unfolding, and how MSM is far behind the curve, and also how containment is not being handled in a way that could potentially have a strong impact.

The airplanes still going in and out of many China cities, the news stories ranking this situation very low, and some countries medical scientists and experts actually taking this very seriously, and estimating much higher counts of contagion. Not alarmist, not meant to panic, but simply to be properly informed.
 

J.R.

Well-Known Member
Did it all started from seafood being tainted or pork ??
I read it was transmitted from live animals sold for food at a consumer market. The story did not state what live animal was sold for food. I'd bet it was some kind of bird. Birds have been a source of viruses to humans before.
 

Mr. Coffee

Well-Known Member
Where specifically are you getting your information? I've been looking for a source that specifies how many Chinese cities are under travel restriction and haven't found one. Events seem to be moving very quickly and nobody is doing a very good job of keeping up.

My executive summary of what we probably know so far:
  • Most of the people who get this virus have very mild symptoms. That's the most likely reason why the estimated number of cases is so dramatically higher than the reported number of cases.
  • Mortality risk is highest for the very young, very old, and those with health problems that otherwise compromise their immune system.
  • Your flu shot isn't going to help.
  • There is going to be some degree of disruption caused by this. How much and how bad it will be nobody really can say for sure. It might be just very minor annoyances. It might mean we all spend a month hunkered down in our houses without utilities drinking bottled water and eating ramen noodles until the crisis passes and the power comes back on. My own personal suspicion is that it will be closer to the former than the latter. But I could be wrong and we could see substantial economic disruptions.
I'm going to look for a source for surgical masks in a small, isolated, mountain town.
 

Mike's E-Bikes

Well-Known Member
I read it was transmitted from live animals sold for food at a consumer market. The story did not state what live animal was sold for food. I'd bet it was some kind of bird. Birds have been a source of viruses to humans before.
Evolution of it was supposedly as bat virus that jumped to snake species and then jumped to humans. Now going human to human. It's a 4 generation hop. Very rare, and the speed is fast. Nothing like Sars at all which was hard to spread. This is easily spread with people who have no symptoms for 5 to up to 14 days, all the while spreading the virus unknowingly. With Sars, it did not spread until symptoms showed up. Easier to contain, and Sars only had a few 'super spreaders' who were highly contagious and kept ignoring symptoms. The species jump is dangerous and human to human is dangerous now, as there is no known natural immunity. Nothing to break the spread of it. No firewall, which means interruption of human contact for long periods, as only way to contain it, against an already exponential spreading that started back in December and we are just now finding out about it - hard to know if China is disclosing everything accurately in time, or if they had a handle on it soon enough, and didn't inadvertently get way behind the contagion curve ? Time will tell.
 
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Alex M

Well-Known Member
I read it was transmitted from live animals sold for food at a consumer market. The story did not state what live animal was sold for food. I'd bet it was some kind of bird. Birds have been a source of viruses to humans before.
Or a vermin. You won't believe what is being sold on markets in Asia, and sanitary conditions of those markets.
 

Handlebars

Active Member
Why is it, again, that after the Chinese planted spies and thieves into our foremost research labs why we need to have our western research biolab being partnered IN China at the source of this, after they were caught stealing the virus from Canada's research center.